S&P 500 Just Closed Its Best Quarter Since 2020. Here's What the Data Actually Shows.

Teddy's Market Brief

S&P 500 Just Closed Its Best Quarter Since 2020. Here's What the Data Actually Shows.

Tuesday, June 30, 2026 · InvestWithTeddy.com

Scan every corner of the market, distill what actually mattered, and get you the full picture in 15 minutes flat. That's what this is every session.

Quarter-end arrived with a bang today. The S&P 500 closed out its best quarter since 2020 and the Nasdaq wasn't far behind.

Tech (XLK+2.7%) led the charge while defensives sold off hard. Real estate (XLRE-2.0%), utilities (XLU-1.5%), and consumer staples (XLP-1.5%) all dropped as money moved decisively toward growth.

What caught my eye is the bond market telling a different story. Long-dated Treasuries (TLT-1.2%) fell sharply even as stocks rallied, meaning yields pushed higher on a risk-on close. The quarter ended on an interesting note.

One small biotech jumped nearly 39% on updated trial data that answered a question the market had been sitting on for months. The kind of move that doesn't happen twice.

Let's get into it.

What's Inside

1	News That Moved Markets
2	Market Snapshot (Sectors, Commodities, Crypto)
3	Teddy's Picks
4	Day's Takeaway

News That Moved Markets

S&P 500, Nasdaq set for best quarter since 2020 despite Iran war

The S&P 500 (SPY +18.12% quarter) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ +31.82% quarter) closed out their strongest quarterly performance since 2020. The run happened despite an active Iran conflict, a signal that markets priced the geopolitical risk and moved on. Quarter-end positioning and a massive chip rally carried the final session higher.

Comcast, NBCUniversal Split Drives Deal-Making Speculation

The planned separation of Comcast and NBCUniversal is pulling in acquisition speculation from Charter, Netflix, and others. Asset breakups of this scale typically unlock valuations that the combined structure was suppressing. Communication services (XLC-0.7%) didn't rally on the news, suggesting the market wants confirmation before pricing in any deal premium.

Warsh Wants the Fed to Talk Less. That Only Gets Wall Street to Listen Harder.

Fed governor Kevin Warsh is pushing for the central bank to communicate less, arguing that forward guidance has become a market-moving crutch. The irony is that the suggestion itself moved markets, with traders parsing every word for what a quieter Fed might signal about rate policy. Any shift in how the Fed communicates would change how investors position around every future meeting.

Ambarella Stock Rockets As AI Chipmaker Scores 'Top Pick' Rating

Ambarella (AMBA+28.0%) landed three independent catalysts in a single session: a Q1 earnings beat, a top pick analyst upgrade, and a long-term edge AI partnership with Hanwha. Volume came in at 4.1x average, confirming the move had institutional participation behind it. When multiple hard catalysts stack on the same day, the repricing tends to hold rather than fade.

Market Snapshot

Index	ETF	Price	1 Day	1 Week	1 Month	1 Quarter
S&P 500	SPY	$746.5	+0.7%	+1.8%	-1.3%	+18.1%
Nasdaq 100	QQQ	$735.9	+1.6%	+3.1%	-0.3%	+31.8%
Dow Jones	DIA	$522.3	+0.1%	+1.1%	+2.2%	+15.5%
Russell 2000	IWM	$300.5	+0.5%	+1.7%	+3.5%	+25.4%

The Nasdaq (QQQ +31.82% quarter) nearly doubled the Dow's quarterly gain of 15.54%, and that gap tells the whole story of where money went this quarter. Today's session confirmed the theme, with tech driving while the Dow barely moved.

Sector Scorecard

Sector	ETF	Price	1 Day	1 Week	1 Month	1 Quarter
Technology	XLK	$190.4	+2.7%	+3.4%	-0.3%	+49.4%
Industrials	XLI	$185.2	+1.4%	+4.0%	+7.0%	+18.3%
Basic Materials	XLB	$50.9	+0.4%	-0.1%	-0.6%	+3.6%
Consumer Cyclical	XLY	$117.3	+0.1%	+3.1%	-3.0%	+11.0%
Financials	XLF	$53.6	-0.2%	-0.5%	+4.0%	+10.9%
Communication Services	XLC	$107.2	-0.7%	-0.1%	-7.4%	-0.7%
Energy	XLE	$53.1	-0.8%	-2.4%	-5.6%	-14.2%
Healthcare	XLV	$158.7	-1.3%	+4.3%	+6.2%	+10.3%
Utilities	XLU	$45.3	-1.5%	+0.6%	+2.0%	-1.3%
Consumer Defensive	XLP	$83.1	-1.5%	-0.8%	+0.2%	+1.5%
Real Estate	XLRE	$44	-2.0%	-1.4%	+0.1%	+9.5%

Tech (XLK +49.36% quarter) is the runaway winner of the quarter by a wide margin, with every defensive sector in the dust. The one-day read reinforces the same story: growth sectors up, defensives red, and the gap between the two is as wide as it's been all quarter.

Sub-Sector Scorecard

Sub-Sector	ETF	Price	1 Day	1 Week	1 Month	1 Quarter
US Cannabis	MSOS	$5.1	+4.8%	+12.7%	+3.1%	+61.0%
Semiconductors	SOXX	$640.8	+4.3%	+6.2%	+12.6%	+106.8%
Solar Energy	TAN	$59.1	+2.7%	+1.0%	-20.0%	+11.8%
Software	IGV	$90.5	+0.7%	+3.7%	-10.9%	+16.7%
Chinese Technology	KWEB	$24.4	+0.6%	-0.1%	-8.5%	-12.0%
Home Builders	XHB	$115.6	+0.2%	+6.8%	+12.6%	+20.9%
Regional Banks	KRE	$74.9	+0.1%	+2.4%	+7.5%	+17.7%
Biotech	XBI	$158.2	-0.1%	+7.6%	+15.8%	+33.2%
Retail	XRT	$87.7	-0.2%	+2.3%	+4.4%	+11.9%
Gold Miners	GDX	$75.5	-0.3%	-2.9%	-15.7%	-12.1%
Blockchain	BLOK	$62.7	-0.5%	-4.0%	-7.8%	+32.4%
Transportation	IYT	$86.8	-1.0%	+3.4%	+3.5%	+20.2%

Semis (SOXX +106.84% quarter) more than doubled over the quarter while its parent sector tech (XLK+49.4%) put up a still-remarkable number of its own. The gap between them is one of the clearest signals in today's data: the chip trade dominated this quarter by a distance, even within an already strong tech rally.

Global Markets

Market	ETF	Price	1 Day	1 Week	1 Month	1 Quarter
Emerging Markets	EEM	$68.4	+1.5%	+1.9%	-0.2%	+25.0%
Europe	VGK	$88.5	+0.5%	+1.6%	-0.5%	+10.8%
Japan	EWJ	$93.3	+0.1%	+0.6%	+0.3%	+14.4%
Brazil	EWZ	$34.5	-0.1%	+1.0%	-3.9%	-6.2%
China	FXI	$31.6	-0.4%	-3.8%	-9.9%	-9.7%

Emerging markets (EEM+1.5%) outpaced Europe and Japan today, which is a quiet divergence worth tracking given that China (FXI-0.4%) closed in the red. That means the EM strength is coming from somewhere other than China, and that tells a different story than the headline number implies.

Bond Market

Bond	ETF	Price	1 Day	1 Week	1 Month	1 Quarter
10-Year Treasury	IEF	$94.6	-0.5%	+0.5%	-0.1%	-0.7%
2-Year Treasury	SHY	$82.1	-0.1%	+0.2%	-0.2%	-0.5%
20+ Year Treasury	TLT	$86.4	-1.2%	+0.3%	+0.8%	-0.4%

The long end (TLT-1.2%) sold off hard today, meaning yields moved higher as stocks rallied. That combination is the market pricing in growth expectations, not fear, and it makes the equity rally look more structurally sound than yesterday's version. It also puts rate-sensitive sectors like real estate (XLRE-2.0%) in a difficult spot heading into next quarter.

Commodities

Commodity	Price	1 Day
Gold (GC)	$4,031.40/oz	-0.2%
Silver (SI)	$59.74/oz	+1.9%
Copper (HG)	$6.25/lb	+1.4%
Crude Oil WTI (CL)	$70.10/bbl	-0.9%
Natural Gas (NG)	$3.2580/MMBtu	+2.4%
Lithium & Battery (LIT)	$78.2	+1.1%

Copper (HG+1.4%) and silver (SI+1.9%) rising while oil (CL-0.9%) fell is a subtle but readable signal. Industrial metals moving up alongside a tech-led equity rally suggests demand expectations are holding, while softer crude fits a market that's more focused on growth than supply disruption right now.

Crypto

Asset	Price	1 Day	1 Week	1 Month
Bitcoin (BTC)	$58,680	-2.9%	-5.8%	-20.1%
Ethereum (ETH)	$1,576.6	-2.8%	-5.1%	-21.1%

Crypto sold off today while equities rallied, which is a clear contradiction of the risk-on read. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are down roughly 20% on the month, and today's divergence from stocks suggests crypto is running on its own calendar right now rather than following the broader growth trade.

Teddy's Picks

Each stock here had breaking news, broke a key level, or showed unusual volume. That's why these caught my eye.

Notable Gainers

Ticker	Company	Day%	Price	What's Behind the Move
ABVX	Abivax ADR	+38.6%	$133.3	Updated trial data eased safety concerns on ulcerative colitis drug obefazimod
NEOV	NeoVolta Inc	+34.0%	$3.1	Signed ~$200M battery energy storage supply letter of intent with Infinite Grid Capital
AMBA	Ambarella Inc	+28.0%	$85.8	Beat Q1 earnings, signed long-term edge AI deal with Hanwha, earned top pick analyst rating
RZLV	Rezolve AI Plc	+21.1%	$3.1	Shareholders approved $300M buyback as commercial momentum builds
FCEL	FuelCell Energy Inc	+20.8%	$36	Secured $49M EXIM financing for South Korean clean energy project

ABVX is the standout fundamental story today. Updated safety data on obefazimod removed what had been a real overhang for the ulcerative colitis drug program. The market wasn't pricing in a clean read, so when it came, the repricing was fast and significant.

AMBA earned its move. A Q1 earnings beat, a named top pick upgrade, and a long-term edge AI partnership with Hanwha all landed on the same day, on elevated volume at 4.1x average. Three independent catalysts in one session is unusual.

NEOV's $200 million battery storage letter of intent is the kind of contract-scale news that can reshape how the market values a small-cap company. The move came on above-average volume. Whether the LOI converts to a signed deal is the question that matters next.

FCEL has been running on non-dilutive financing wins. The $49M EXIM facility for South Korea is real capital that doesn't dilute shareholders, and the market is rewarding that distinction clearly.

RZLV moved on buyback approval and commercial momentum framing. The $300M repurchase mandate is large relative to the company's size, and that math tends to get retail attention fast.

Notable Losers

Day's Takeaway

Quarter-end delivered exactly what the scoreboard said it would. Tech (XLK +49.36% quarter) dominated, semis (SOXX +106.84% quarter) were the real story inside that number, and defensive sectors were left behind. Today's session was the final page of that same chapter.

The bond market is what I keep coming back to. Long-dated Treasuries (TLT-1.2%) falling while the S&P (SPY+0.7%) and Nasdaq (QQQ+1.6%) both closed green suggests the market genuinely believes growth is continuing, not just bouncing. That's a different read than yesterday, when bonds sat flat and stocks ran. Yields rising alongside equities is the version of a rally that has more structural backing behind it.

Crypto's move today cuts the other way. Bitcoin (BTC-2.9%) and Ethereum (ETH-2.8%) both fell on a green equity day, which is a split that doesn't fit a clean risk-on narrative. One session of divergence doesn't mean much. A pattern of it would.

Bottom line: the quarter closed on a genuine growth signal, not just a relief rally. The question heading into next quarter is whether earnings can catch up to valuations that just ran 30-plus percent in three months.

Fifteen minutes, one full quarter wrapped. See you at the open.

Stay sharp. -Teddy

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